Truce in Nagorno-Karabakh: in search of a compromise

The composition of the peacekeeping contingent in the region is still unclear.&# 160;

The situation with the participation of Turkish peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh remains very complicated. In Moscow, referring to the tripartite (Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia) agreement on an armistice in the conflict zone reached the day before, they note that Turkey is not mentioned in the document at all in any context..
Russia, in accordance with the agreements, has already sent its contingent of peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh: almost two thousand fighters, who, along with armored vehicles, were delivered on several cargo military aircraft.

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The participation of the Turkish forces in the peacekeeping operation was previously announced by the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. Baku also showed a video recording where Aliyev, during a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that one of the points of the trilateral agreement was “the joint peacekeeping mission of Russia and Turkey.” At the same time, Putin did not disavow the words of his colleague, but there is no mention of Turkish peacekeepers in the document published on the Kremlin’s website..
According to regional media, Ankara provided political and military support to Baku in the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
As follows from the explanations, the Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov, the leaders of the three countries discussed the placement of the monitoring center with the participation of Turkey, and all other nuances, they say, should be discussed separately.
In accordance with the document, a number of regions of Nagorno-Karabakh are transferred under the control of Azerbaijan, and the sides cease hostilities..
Meanwhile, the victory is celebrated in Baku, Ilham Aliyev called the armistice agreement “Armenia’s surrender”.
Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan does not admit defeat. However, in Yerevan after the announcement of the trilateral agreement, massive anti-government actions erupted..
Alexander Golts: “The best of all bad decisions”

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict: New truce comes into effect in Nagorno-Karabakh | World News

Military analyst Alexander Golts, in a comment for the Russian service of the Voice of America, said that the compromise agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh was “the best of all bad decisions” that have been made. As for the peacekeeping mission, then, according to him, it will be successful exactly until the moment when one of the parties decides to violate the agreement reached..
“I can cite the peacekeeping mission in South Ossetia as an example,” he added. – It has been absolutely successful since 1992. But it all collapsed overnight when hostilities broke out there in 2008. Well-trained peacekeepers can easily cope with all kinds of excesses, but they cannot do anything if one of the parties deliberately decides to break the truce. “.
In fact, no one knows how to resolve such conflicts, stated Alexander Golts. It seems to him that if the Karabakh conflict was really frozen, then one should hope that the next generations will be wiser than the current ones and will be able to resolve this problem..
At the same time, the political scientist noted that if the Turkish servicemen became part of the peacekeepers, it would be in the logic of today’s relations between Moscow and Ankara. “However, there is not a word about this in the trilateral agreement,” he said. – But I admit that Turkey will want to take part in the mission, and I do not think that Russia will oppose this. Here Yerevan can resist, but now it is not at all in a position to insist on something too much “.
Alexander Golts also called the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh and everything connected with it one of Russia’s biggest foreign policy defeats: “Moreover, regardless of whether the peacekeeping operation is successful or not. A new player has appeared in the Caucasus region – Turkey, which, unlike Moscow, clearly formulates its goals. In addition, Ankara played a much more significant role in the outcome of the conflict than Moscow. And the recent destruction of the Russian helicopter was another demonstration of the humiliating position of Russia, “the analyst summed up.
According to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, a Russian military helicopter Mi-24 was accidentally shot down on Monday evening by the Azerbaijani military in the skies over Armenia. As a result, two crew members were killed, another was hospitalized. The Azerbaijani side subsequently apologized for the incident, expressed its readiness to pay compensation and opened a criminal case over the incident..
Alexander Shumilin: Moscow’s position during the conflict was “extremely vague”
In turn, the head of the Europe-Middle East Center of the Institute of Europe Alexander Shumilin believes that despite the statement of the leader of Azerbaijan, there is no surrender on the Armenian side. According to his wording, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh was frozen “at the stage of unfavorable development of events for Armenia”.
In addition, the orientalist predicts that a peacekeeping mission in an explosive region must be successful, because both sides of the conflict need it. “It’s another matter what the composition of the peacekeeping contingent will be,” he says. – Yes, only the Russian military are officially (in the agreement) spelled out, but the Turkish military can also be involved. If that happens, it could make a difference. I think that such a turn will not suit the Armenians “.
Theoretically, this can lead to a breakdown of the ceasefire, but it is far from being necessary, Alexander Shumilin emphasized: “It must be understood that it was the defeated Armenian generals who lobbied the suspension of hostilities and forced the political leadership of the country, Pashinyan, to do so. In a sense, this suggests an analogy with the Peace of Brest. But these are objectively necessary actions (of Yerevan), dictated by the desire to avoid the worst consequences. The Armenian military realistically assessed the situation, realizing that it is impossible to contain the pressure of the enemy forces and new losses of settlements are inevitable “.
The seizure of the city of Shushi by the Azerbaijani army became a decisive factor in the confrontation on the battlefield, says the head of the Europe-Middle East Center of the Institute of Europe. Also, according to him, the position of Moscow during the conflict was “extremely vague”.

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  • Rafael Saakov

    Author and host of the program "A week". Since 2016 – Correspondent of the Russian Service "Voices of America" in Washington, in international journalism – since 2004. Former employee of the Moscow bureau of the BBC. Graduate of the Faculty of Journalism, Moscow State University. Main areas of activity – politics, sports, culture, social networks

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