As part of the Gaidar Forum, economists talk about the need for Moscow to somehow react to the change in the global energy market
MOSCOW – The Gaidar Forum Russia and the World: Challenges of Integration, an international conference of world-class economists and financiers, kicked off on Wednesday. From January 16 to January 19, the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) will discuss world trends in global integration processes and economic development.
On the first day, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev took part in the main plenary discussion on global integration challenges. When he appeared, the crowded hall stood up.
The Prime Minister listed the main tasks that he sees for the Russian economy in the coming years, from ensuring macroeconomic stability and adaptation to the WTO conditions and ending with balancing regional development in the country. But the prime minister promised to reduce the share of state participation in the structure of the Russian economy: “state corporations have played their role in the consolidation of disparate assets, and in the future their fate must obey certain rules,” Medvedev said..
At the end of his speech, Medvedev noted with pleasure that Russia has every opportunity to become “one of the key connecting links in global integration processes.” He also called for “to realize their geopolitical advantages” and “to attract significant dividends for their own development.”.
Among the guests are not only representatives of the Russian government. The forum was attended by the head of the WTO Pascal Lamy, Secretary General of the OECD Angel Gurria, Nobel Laureate in Economics Robert Mundell, Vice President of the World Bank Otaviano Canuto, Professor of Harvard University Neil Ferguson and many others.
Among the spectators were economists, professors and students of economic universities. Also in the front row was US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul. But the question, suddenly addressed to him from the audience, within the framework of the plenary session, remained unanswered..
Hans Timmer, director of economic forecasting at the World Bank, while discussing the new configuration of the global financial system, stressed several times that countries should remember about the interconnectedness of economic systems in an increasingly globalized world. He urged to remember the impact that the monetary policy of individual states can have on other countries..
Timmer also noted that countries now need to actively exchange information and coordinate their policies. The attention of the G20 international institutions should be directed to the urgent problem of reforming financial markets..
“We need global coordination, but we must not underestimate how difficult it is and train patience,” says the economist. A common “safety cushion” for countries is now needed even more than separate protective mechanisms, the expert believes..
When asked by the Russian Voice of America correspondent about the possible risks of a crisis in the future, which could entail international consequences, as was the case with the possibility of a financial cliff in the United States quite recently, Hans Timmer replied that the situation in the world “suggests the possibility of new shocks in almost any region “.
“Risks are no longer concentrated only in European countries,” he explained. But the situation in the world, according to him, is rather complicated, and there is a possibility of new shocks that are difficult to foresee..
In his forecast, Jack Goldstone, a professor at George Mason University in Washington, briefly noted the key, in his opinion, the moments that will affect the global economy in the future..
Among other things, he predicts the end of the explosive growth of the labor force in China, India, Brazil and Indonesia, which will make such easy access to their human and productive resources impossible. “New China” Goldstone calls Africa, which is likely to make a quantum leap forward in the next few years.
US, Russia on Collision Course in Competition for European Gas Market
“An exponential percentage of young people under the age of 15 are now living in developing countries,” says Goldstone. – Half of the new population is growing in Africa. It’s impossible to ignore ”.
As for Europe, Goldstone shares the optimism of other economists that Europe is emerging from the crisis. Therefore, new issues are on the agenda: greater integration of Europe. Goldstone asks if this will happen through strengthening the dominance of Brussels or, on the contrary, through increasing the role of national leaders.?
Goldstone also commented on a possible change in US-Russian relations: “The US is now enjoying a boom in oil and gas production. So far, this does not greatly affect the global market, only the US domestic market. But soon Russia will need to somehow react to the change in the structure of the global energy market “.
Four days of the forum
Within the framework of plenary sessions and round tables, experts will discuss Russia’s strategy in the WTO, problems of state control, economic growth, challenges of monetary and tax policy, and financial instruments. Rector of the Russian Academy of National Economy Vladimir Mau noted that he would definitely touch on “issues of international competitiveness in general and Russia’s competitiveness in particular”.
Separate discussions will be devoted to participation in world institutions: the WTO, OECD, the agenda of Russia in the G20 and its projection on the chairmanship of the G8, the new configuration of the global financial system, the economy of the integration agenda: the CIS, EU, APR and others..