None of the parties that make it into the new national parliament will be able to form a government alone
Regular parliamentary elections were held in Moldova last Sunday. Candidates from four parties overcome six percent barrier.
A relative majority (31.3% of the vote) was won by the Socialist Party, whose leader Igor Dodon is currently the country’s president. The pro-Russian socialists will be opposed by the pro-European bloc ACUM (“Now”), headed by the presidential candidate in the last elections Maya Sandu and the politician Adrian Nastase. They come in second with 26% of the vote. The Democratic Party, led by the richest man in the republic, Vladimir Plahotniuc, has won the support of almost a quarter of Moldovan voters – it has 24% of the vote. And in last place is the party of businessman Ilan Shor, which, according to preliminary estimates, took 8.5%.
The correspondent of the Russian service “Voice of America” recorded the comments of Moldovan experts on what the national parliament will be like and who will be able to form the new government of the country.
Buying allies, “glueing the government” or re-election
Political analyst Oazu Nantoi notes that according to opinion polls conducted in recent months, the Democratic Party had a very low electoral rating. “As a result, the leader of the party, and in fact – its owner, Vladimir Plahotniuc, together with Igor Dodon, went to change the electoral system in order to snatch the missing mandates in single-mandate constituencies. This happened when they voted for the transition from a proportional system to a mixed one, despite harsh criticism from the European Union, “- says the source of the Voice of America..
This maneuver allowed the Democratic Party to achieve, in Nantoi’s words, “a relatively decent result.” At the same time, the expert believes that the elections were not “free and fair”, as evidenced by “non-transparent financing of the Socialist and Democratic Party and the party of Ilan Shor”, as well as “the use of dirty electoral technologies”. While the ACUM coalition “campaigned exclusively on private donations from citizens and on the basis of a volunteer movement”.
As a result, as Oazu Nantoi notes, “today no party has a real majority and the whole intrigue boils down to three options.” As the first, the expert points to the possibility of Vladimir Plahotniuc’s purchase of allies from other parties, the second option is “gluing the coalition government”, and the third option is the appointment of early elections.
The political analyst denies the possibility of concluding a cooperation agreement between the Democratic Party and the ACUM coalition. By the way, Igor Dodon also spoke about the possibility of the third option on Monday, who excludes the possibility of the socialists joining the coalition with the Democratic Party and with ACUM.
“Joint technical vote” for the next two months
Former representative of Moldova to the Council of Europe and the United Nations Alexey Tulbure gave a brief description of the game of Ilan Shor. In his opinion, “this party has no independent political significance, it is an absolute creature of the Democratic Party and its leader, Vladimir Plahotniuc.” The main goal for which the leader of the Democratic Party supported Shor’s party was for the new party to take votes from the socialists..
At the same time, the Socialist Party of Moldova cannot create a government alone. “Socialists are“ toxic ”for the pro-European bloc ACUM, since any alliance with this force undermines their political identity.
The socialists could have entered into an alliance with Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party, but the Democratic Party would have done it only on its own terms, in order to turn Dodon’s party into a pro-European force. That is, they will not cooperate with an openly pro-Russian party, since this is fraught with complications for them in relations with Western partners, ”says Aleksey Tulbure.
A possible way out of the situation, according to the expert, is a “joint technical vote” between the socialists and the pro-European alliance. “Both those and others declared themselves oppositional forces, that is, anti-oligarchic. And mathematically, such a situational vote is possible, since in total both political forces have a majority – 60 parliamentary mandates out of 101.
Of course, they will not go to the formalization of the coalition. But vote in solidarity, for example, for the removal of the Prosecutor General, for the change of the Central Election Commission or for the change of the High Council of the Magistracy – the body in charge of the judicial corps – they can.
This is possible within a month or two, after which early elections are announced, which will be held in new conditions with relatively free government structures and equal chances of winning, ”Tulbure said..
He sums up his comment as follows: “People voted against the current government, that is, against Plahotniuc’s party. Only some voted for the so-called “left”, that is, pro-Russian, while others voted for the conditional “right,” that is, pro-European, or rather, pro-Romanian. That is, people want change. And the whole question is whether these parties will be able to realize the will of the people “.
Pro-EU parties ahead in Moldova elections
An attempt at European integration, which the European Union does not like
Director of the Institute for Public Policy Arkady Barbaroshe does not consider it possible to radically change the country’s foreign policy, that is, rejection of European integration and closer rapprochement with Russia with subsequent accession to the EAEU Customs Union. “Vladimir Plahotniuc has a huge business in European countries, but he has nothing in Russia or Belarus. He, of course, promotes European integration, but he does it in his own way. But the European Union does not like the fact that it is not engaged in reforming the justice system, although it promised to do so. Moreover, what he is doing clearly does not comply with European laws, and ultimately with European values, ”the Moldovan political scientist notes..
If we turn to the current internal politics of Moldova, then Arkadi Barbarosie, like other interlocutors of the Voice of America, does not see the possibility of concluding any coalition between the parties that entered parliament. “I think that in the coming days Plahotniuc will make attempts to flirt with one or the other party, but he is unlikely to change the direction of the country. He may well repeat what he did in the previous parliament – to buy out part of the socialists, part of the people from the ACUM bloc and try to make a parliamentary majority with them. But this is just my opinion, maybe I’m not right, ”concludes the director of the Moldovan Institute of Public Policy.