According to experts, the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh will have a number of important consequences.
KIEV – Recall that on November 9, President of Azerbaijan Aliyev, Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinyan and Russian President Putin signed a statement declaring a complete ceasefire and all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from 00:00 Moscow time on November 10 2020.
One of the conditions for ending the conflict is the deployment of 1960 Russian peacekeepers with small arms, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 units of automobile and special equipment along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor..
There could have been Turkish peacekeepers
According to RBK, in Nagorno-Karabakh on Tuesday, November 10, the deployment of units of Russian peacekeepers began..
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has published a video recording of a conversation with Vladimir Putin, which mentions Turkish peacekeepers, regional media reported. The words of the Azerbaijani leader about the possibility for the participation of Turkish peacekeepers were voiced in the format of a video conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I would also like to express my gratitude today to the President of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for his active participation in the political settlement of the conflict and one of the points of today’s statement is the joint peacekeeping mission of Russia and Turkey. Thus, we are creating a new perfect format of interaction in the region not only within the framework of the conflict settlement, but also in the future development, “Aliyev said..
The role of military technology and geopolitics
Deputy Director of the Center for Army Research, Conversion and Disarmament Mikhail Samus notes that Azerbaijan has been preparing for the liberation of Nagorno-Karabakh for thirty years.
“They managed to build their geopolitics, they managed to get the full allied support of Turkey and actually enlist the support of Russia, which, in fact, surrendered its ally – Armenia. Although there will now be talk that Russia has protected the Armenian people. If the Kremlin were really an ally of Armenia, then, when there were active hostilities, they would immediately begin to bring in their troops, and very quickly would stop the hostilities, “Mikhail Samus tells the correspondent of the Russian service of the Voice of America..
He believes that for Ukraine the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the opportunities demonstrated by the Azerbaijani military are an example of how to develop and modernize the Armed Forces..
“They were several heads taller than their opponents, Ukraine also needs to prepare for a new generation of wars, be able to build a high-tech army, use modern tactics of hostilities and build geopolitics in such a way that it would be possible to conduct a peaceful de-occupation of certain regions of Donbass and Crimea,” notes Mikhail Samus.
He believes that when asked why Russia did not defend Armenia, there are many conspiracy theories and answers..
“From the point of view of theory, why Putin did not help the Prime Minister of Armenia is precisely because Pashinyan is a leader who came to protests, to fight corruption and old clans and build an effective republic. And Putin did not like this, because the Armenians, in fact, threw away those elites that were supported in Armenia by Russia. Perhaps this was the psychological factor of “punishment” for not listening to the advice of the Kremlin “, – reflects Mikhail Samus.
Analogies are impossible
According to the director of the Institute for Political Analysis and International Studies Sergei Tolstov the process of resolving the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be viewed as a template for other conflicts in the post-Soviet space.
“Karabakh is officially the territory of Azerbaijan. Twice Russia has proposed solutions to the situation in the region. And the last negotiations were under President Medvedev. Is it possible to resolve the issue in a similar way in Transnistria, Donbass or in the Georgian autonomies? Hardly, “Sergei Tolstov says to the Voice of America Russian Service..
He notes that a political solution is impossible in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, since Russia has recognized the independence of these entities. And in Donbass, Sergei Tolstov believes, official Moscow calls certain territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions Ukrainian and is ready to continue the dialogue within the framework of the Minsk process..
“And this, in turn, does not give an understanding of the scenarios of the end point of decisions in this process,” emphasizes Sergei Tolstov.
He calls “chatter” and “fiction” the assumptions of individual experts that a military plan for the return of territories can be implemented in the Donbas..
“Even the position of the population in Donbass does not play any role, everything depends on the decisions that Russia will take. This is a complete fiction – no military clash in the Donbass will give Ukraine anything except another defeat and death of people, ”Sergei Tolstov believes..
According to him, the emergence of a Russian peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh is quite logical, since the state of affairs in the region cannot do without Russia, and Turkey is not going to replace Russia with itself..
Peacekeepers. Implications for the Caucasus
Security expert Bohdan Petrenko writes on his Facebook page that, analyzing the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine should draw its own conclusions.
The Nagorno Karabakh conflict: military lessons for middle powers
“In order to liberate the territories, it is necessary to prepare for this – not even a year, the de-occupation may take decades. Do not drag out the situation in the hope that either the “sheikh or the donkey will die”, but prepare. Not to waste time for something unknown, but to accumulate economic, military, informational, diplomatic potential, ”notes Bogdan Petrenko.
Political scientist Yuri Romanenko notes on his YouTube channel that Russia played a geopolitical party in Nagorno-Karabakh, which tactically strengthened its position not only in Armenia, but also in relations with Azerbaijan..
“If before this conflict Russia was present in one country and had a military base in Armenia, now it has expanded its presence in Azerbaijan,” Yuri Romanenko notes..
The presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, on the territory of Azerbaijan, will have a number of important consequences, the political scientist claims..
“Now Aliyev and Azerbaijan will be more dependent on Russia,” Yuri Romanenko believes..
This point of view is not shared by independent military expert Alexander Golts. In a commentary for the Russian service of Voice of America, he called the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh and everything connected with it one of Russia’s biggest foreign policy defeats: “Moreover, regardless of whether the peacekeeping operation is successful or not. A new player has appeared in the Caucasus region – Turkey, which, unlike Moscow, clearly formulates its goals. In addition, Ankara played a much more significant role in the outcome of the conflict than Moscow. And the recent destruction of the Russian helicopter was another demonstration of the humiliating position of Russia, “the analyst summed up.